Chiru forcing T party?

In the wake of the advent of Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam, and given the likelihood of a tie-up between the Telugu Desam and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), the ruling Congress in Andhra Pradesh has its work cut out in the 2009 elections According to a latest survey, the party is facing a serious dent in its support in the three north coastal and the twin Godavari districts following the launching of Praja Rajyam, which is tipped to do well in all these districts — Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, East and West Godavari.

Conducted by an independent agency for a political party, the survey covered more than 30,000 voters in all the 68 constituencies in the five districts after Chiranjeevi’s maiden public meeting in Tirupati. It was limited to these districts because the actorpolitician’s impact is likely to be greatest here for a variety of reasons — ranging from the fact that influence of films on politics is more intense in the three north coastal districts, to the ‘‘son of the soil’’ factor and the preponderance of the Kapus in the Godavari districts.

As against 74 in the past, the number of segments in the five districts has dropped to 68 consequent on the delimitation exercise, and the Praja Rajyam is ahead of the others in as many as 32. District-wise, it leads in three in Srikakulam (out of a total 10), three in Vizianagaram (9), seven in Visakhapatnam (15), 11 in East Godavari (19) and 8 in West Godavari (15).

As for the Congress, it is ahead in 30 constituencies, with the districtwise break-up reading Srikakulam 6, Vizianagaram 4, Visakhapatnam 6, East Godavari 7 and West Godavari 7.

This translates to around 44 per cent of the seats as against the 71 per cent it had bagged in 2004 when the party secured as many as 53 of the then 74 seats.

It is the Telugu Desam which appears to be suffering in this belt with the party leading in only a few seats in Visakhaptnam and not expected to be a serious player in the other four districts.

What is significant is the level of support to Praja Rajyam even before Chiranjeevi’s State-wide tour set to begin this month-end. If this mood is sustained and consolidated upon, it would entail more headaches for the Congress in the five districts. But there are those who pose the vital question whether the Chiranjeevi wave would wash as far afield as the Rayalaseema and Telangana regions.

Many analysts believe that the new scenario would belie the historical one of the Godavari districts setting the trend for the rest of the State. It is the ‘‘son of the soil’’ factor working heavily in favour of Chiranjeevi in the Godavari districts which had in the past voted decisively either for the Congress or TDP in the absence of any local factor.Moreover, in the Telangana region, there will be a new element in play — the possible tie-up between the Telugu Desam and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi.

The Congress had benefited hugely in 2004 because of its alliance with TRS. The combine had bagged more than 80 out of the then 107 seats in the region (the number of seats has now gone up to 119 of the total 294 in the State).

The combined force of the TDP, with a strong base in Telangana, and the TRS with its emotive slogan, could press the Congress hard here too.

As of now, the scenario in the four south coastal districts — Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam and Nellore and the four in Rayalaseema, seems not to markedly favour any of the major contenders.

All in all, an interesting battle is in the offing in 2009.